The violent extremist threat is evolving, senior U.S. intelligence officials told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence yesterday.

According to AFPS’ Jim Garamone, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair and CIA Director Leon Panetta told lawmakers that al-Qaida remains at the center of the extremist threat against the United States.

Meanwhile, al-Qaida, its affiliates, and other terror groups are changing as they continue to plot and attempt attacks, the intelligence officials said.

“My greatest concern and what keeps me awake at night is that al-Qaida and its terrorist allies and affiliates could very well attack the United States in our homeland,” Panetta told the senators.

“We have made the complex, multiple-team attacks very difficult for al-Qaida to pull off,” Blair, a retired Navy admiral, said. “As we saw with the recent successful and attempted terrorist attacks, however, identifying individual terrorists, small groups with short histories using simple attack methods, is a new degree of difficulty.”

Al-Qaida is adapting to the new situation. “What’s happening is that they are moving to other safe havens and to other regional nodes in places like Yemen and Somalia, the Maghreb and others,” Panetta said.

Trends in the Muslim world show a decreasing minority of the population support violent extremism. “But even with a decreasing and smaller amount, al-Qaida’s radical ideology still seems to appeal strongly to some disaffected young Muslims, a pool of potential suicide bombers and other fighters,” Blair said. “And this pool unfortunately includes Americans.”

Blair said the United States does not have the same high-level, home-grown threat that Europe faces now, but self-radicalizing people will continue to be a problem and may grow.

The threat to the United States comes more from “lone-wolf” terrorists, Panetta said.

“We are being aggressive at going after this threat,” he said. “We’ve expanded our human intelligence. We are engaging with our liaison partners in other countries to try to track these kinds of threats. We obviously are checking and reviewing watch-lists and other lists to determine who among them could be that potential lone wolf. And we are taking the fight to the enemy, and we will continue to do that.”

But this may not be enough. “However much we improve our intelligence – and we intend to improve it even more than it is – we cannot count on it to catch every threat,” Blair said.

Mounting intensified counterterrorism efforts in the Afghan-Pakistan region as well as in places like Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere, he said, will “be critical to further diminishing the threat.”

In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Taliban has increased its influence and expanded the insurgency, Blair said. That’s why the United States and its allies need to reverse the Taliban’s momentum while reinforcing security elsewhere, he said.

Another goal is to improve Afghan security forces, governance and economic capabilities, Blair said, so security gains will endure and can be transferred to the Afghans.

“Early successes in places like Helmand, where Marines have been deployed for several months, where aggressive counter-drug and economic programs are in place, and where local governance is competent show that we can make solid progress even when the threat is high,” he said.

Last year, Blair cited the global financial meltdown as a danger to the security of the world. “But an unprecedented policy response by governments and central banks around the world laid a foundation for global recovery that most forecasters expect will continue through 2010, although high unemployment and pockets of difficulty will still persist,” he said.

Meanwhile, China is becoming a bigger world player thanks to its burgeoning economy, Blair said. China’s economy, he said, “will grow from being a third of the size of that of the U.S. to roughly half by 2015, an earlier date than we had previously projected.”

The Chinese, indeed, are playing a larger role on the world stage, with its naval forces helping anti-piracy efforts off Somalia and through contributions to the International Monetary Fund.

But there are worrying trends too, Blair said, as the Chinese continue their military build-up.

“Preparation for a Taiwan conflict involving a U.S. intervention continues to dominate their modernization and contingency plans,” Blair said of China’s efforts to bulk up its military capabilities. “And China also increasingly worries about how to protect its global interests.”

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders are keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, Blair said. “One of the key capabilities Iran continues to develop is its uranium enrichment program,” he told the senators.

“The United States and other countries announced last September that Iran for years has been building in secret a second enrichment facility near Qom,” Blair said. “Overall, we continue to assess that Iran has the scientific, the technical and the industrial capacity to produce enough highly-enriched uranium for a weapon in the next few years if it choose to do so, and ultimately, to produce nuclear weapons. The central issue is a political decision to do so.”

Iran also continues to test and build ballistic missiles, giving Tehran a means of delivering a possible nuclear payload, officials said.

An al-Qaida-backed terror syndicate is focused on destabilizing South Asia and stoking tensions between India and Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters yesterday.

Speaking at a news conference after meetings with Indian leaders, Gates emphasized “the magnitude of the threat” the region faces in light of al-Qaida, Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba elements, all working toward common goals.

Groups operating under the al-Qaida umbrella in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province, probably in North Waziristan, are orchestrating attacks using one element in Afghanistan, he said. Meanwhile, another element of the Taliban in Pakistan is being used to attack targets there, destabilizing the region. At the same time, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the separatist group blamed for the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, India, is planning new attacks in India, reports AFPS’ Donna Miles.

“It’s a very complicated situation. I think it’s very dangerous for the region as a whole,” Gates said. “I also think it’s dangerous to single out any one of these groups and say if we could beat that group that will solve the problem — because they are, in effect, a syndicate of terrorist operators intending to destabilize this entire region.

“What we see is that the success of any one of these groups leads to new capabilities and new reputation for all,” he continued. “A victory for one is a victory for all.”

Gates said he talked with the Indian leaders he met with here about the destabilizing nature of the alliance in the region, and the risk that it will attempt more high-visibility attacks such as the ones that rocked Mumbai.

India demonstrated “great restraint and statesmanship” following that event, Gates told reporters, but he recognized that it could be hard-pressed to maintain that posture if a similar incident occurred again.

“I think it’s not unreasonable to assume that Indian patience would be limited were there to be further attacks,” he said.

Confronting this threat requires the entire region to understand its magnitude and work together to reduce or eliminate it, Gates said. “It does require a high level of cooperation among us all,” he said.

Iraqi security forces arrested two terrorism suspects in operations over the last two days, military officials reported.

In western Baghdad, Iraqi forces arrested a suspected al-Qaida in Iraq member believed to be a recruiter for foreign fighters and to have ties to high-level members of the terror organization who stage vehicle-bomb attacks across central Iraq.

Intelligence gathered by U.S. and Iraqi sources led ae combined security team to a building where the suspect was believed to be. Iraqi forces questioned several people, and they identified and arrested the suspect without incident.

In Iraq’s Salahuddin province yesterday, an Iraqi special weapons and tactics team, observed by U.S. forces, arrested Hussein Salih Sabum, a suspected member of al-Qaida in Iraq.

Hussein is the suspected leader of a cell responsible for planning and facilitating bombing attacks against Iraqi security forces, including a suicide-bomber attack that killed 11 people and injured 15 others in Tikrit.

He also is believed to be responsible for the assassination of Lt. Col. Ahmad Fahal, the Tirkit riot-dispersal unit commander.

Al-Qaida remains a danger, and the area along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan is the epicenter of global Islamic extremism, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said at the Foreign Press Center in Washington, D.C. today, according to AFPS’ Jim Garamone.

Mullen reiterated to foreign journalists that he fully concurs with President Barack Obama’s decision to send another 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan.

“It is my belief, and that of the commanders, that this surge gives General McChrystal all the forces he needs in 2010 to reverse the momentum of what I have described as a growing and increasingly lethal insurgency,” Navy Adm. Mike Mullen said. Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal commands U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan.

The border area was where al-Qaida planned the 9/11 attacks, Mullen noted. “Should we be hit again, I’m convinced the planning, training, financing and leadership will emanate from there,” he said. “That is why we are so focused on it. That’s why we believe this mission is in our national security interests and those of our allies and friends.”

Mullen returned yesterday from visiting soldiers and Marines at Fort Campbell, Ky., and Camp Lejeune, N.C., who soon will deploy to Afghanistan.

“I thanked them for their service, and I told them that their mission to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-Qaida and to degrade the Taliban’s influence and to prevent Afghanistan or Pakistan from becoming safe havens is not merely about killing or capturing the enemy,” he said. “It is also about protecting the Afghan people.”

The troops must earn the Afghan people’s trust and learn their culture. The mission is all about providing breathing space to build the Afghan security forces so they can protect their own people and stabilize their own country, the chairman said.

“The president has made it very clear, while our commitment to the people of Afghanistan is enduring, our troop presence will not be,” Mullen said.

American forces must work to train Afghan forces so they can provide their own security while creating breathing space so good governance can take root, Mullen said.

“In July 2011, we will begin the process of transition – of transferring more responsibility to Afghan national security forces and thinning our own lines,” the chairman said. “At that time, the Marines we sent last summer in Helmand province will have been at the job for two years. We will know by then if we have been successful.”

Winning in Afghanistan is not solely the responsibility of the military – it is not that kind of war, Mullen said. “Success will only come by and through a concerted effort by other agencies and other partners,” he said. “Ultimate success will be the cumulative effect of sustained pressure across multiple lines of operations.”

The chairman said the effort needs more civilian experts and help from international partners, and he expressed delight that NATO nations have pledged another 7,000 troops to the alliance’s effort in Afghanistan. He also said Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s government must do its part.

“We need to see efforts on the part of the Karzai government to make good on promised reforms, and to extend the delivery of goods and services all the way down to the district and sub-district levels,” the admiral said.

All involved need to realize that the problems are not limited to Afghanistan, and that a regional strategy is needed, America’s top military officer said.

“A key part of the president’s strategy is to strengthen cooperation with Pakistan and to improve the level of coordination across and within those border regions,” Mullen said. “I believe that to the degree we can do this we can certainly help the Pakistanis themselves get at those safe havens.”

The chairman praised the Pakistani military for recent operations in South Waziristan. He said that Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani has been true to his word, “and I very much appreciate his leadership.”

Iraqi security forces arrested 18 suspected al-Qaida in Iraq associates today, and earlier this week captured a terrorism suspect they’ve been pursuing for three years, military officials reported.

Iraqi forces and U.S. advisors searched several houses in Mosul looking for an alleged al-Qaida in Iraq regional leader who is suspected of staging deadly attacks against Iraqi civilians and security forces.

Based on preliminary questioning and evidence gathered at the scene, Iraqi forces arrested 18 of his suspected associates.

The arrests in Mosul are expected to contribute to greater safety for Iraqis from attacks during the upcoming Eid al-Adha, or “Festival of Sacrifice,” Muslim holiday.

In Diyala province Nov. 22, Iraqi security forces, advised by U.S. forces, arrested a suspected leader of a terrorist group, along with a suspected associate.

The judicial court of Muqdadiyah had issued a warrant for Harith Sadun Dawud al-Rubayi for suspicion of murder, kidnapping and bombing attacks against Iraqi citizens and Iraqi security forces. He also is suspected of smuggling weapons, home invasions and stealing money from Iraq’s interior ministry.

He is believed to be linked to the kidnapping and murder of the son of a former Muqdadiyah mayor in September, as well as the murder of an Iraqi policeman in Abu Sayda. The suspect has been wanted by authorities and had evaded capture for three years.

Iraqi police, working with U.S. advisors, arrested five suspected members of the al-Qaida in Iraq and Islamic State of Iraq terrorist groups today during operations in Iraq’s Diyala and Salahuddin provinces, military officials reported.

In Saytiyah, about 65 miles northeast of Baghdad, Iraqi police and U.S. advisors searched with an arrest warrant for an alleged Islamic State of Iraq member known to be directly linked to a—Qaida in Iraq. The man is suspected of orchestrating attacks in Baghdad from remote locations in Diyala province, and also is wanted for providing vehicles for vehicle-borne bombings in the region.

Iraqi police established a cordon and searched a building during the operation. During preliminary questioning and based on evidence found at the scene, a suspect was determined to be connected with the Islamic State of Iraq network and was arrested without incident. The warranted man was not apprehended.

In a separate operation, Iraqi police and U.S. advisors searched for an alleged al-Qaida in Iraq and Islamic State of Iraq associate in a rural area about 50 miles northwest of Baghdad.

The team searched a building and questioned people. Based on information gathered at the scene, they arrested four people suspected of engaging in terrorist activity.

A growing number of recruits from Western nations — including the U.S. — are traveling to Afghanistan and Pakistan to attend training camps run by al-Qaida and other terrorist groups, American and European counterterrorism officials say.

The flow of Western recruits has continued despite the intensified American campaign to take out terrorist leaders with drone missile attacks.

According to the Washington Post, A propaganda videotape released in September by a group calling itself the German Taliban showed a gunman identified as Abu Ibrahim the American. The tape was one of several released by groups affiliated with the Taliban and al-Qaida warning of an attack on German targets if the government did not withdraw its 3,800 troops from Afghanistan. At least 30 recruits from Germany have traveled to Pakistan this year for training, Germany security forces say.

The Post added:

“About 10 people — not necessarily the same individuals — have returned to Germany this year, fueling concerns that fresh plots are in the works against European targets.”

Pakistani officials in August arrested a dozen foreigners on their way to North Waziristan, a tribal region where many of the training camps are located. Among them was Mehdi Ghezali, a former inmate at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay.

In July, American officials announced that they had taken into custody New Yorker Bryant Neal Vinas, who confessed to traveling to al-Qaida camps in Pakistan and training to become a suicide bomber.

While he has been in custody, the U.S. has made a series of successful drone strikes on suspected al-Qaida locations in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, raising questions about whether Vinas provided the information that led to any of the deadly attacks, according to The Associated Press.

Vinas also told American authorities that he spent time in Pakistan with another New York resident, whose whereabouts are unknown. Al-Qaida and its affiliates have now developed an extensive recruiting network, The Post disclosed, with agents providing Western recruits with guidance, money, and travel routes to South Asia.